OH-15
Lean ROhio · Current Mike Carey
Michael Todd Whitaker Carey is an American politician and former coal lobbyist serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 15th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, Carey was first elected in a 2021 special election. Wikipedia
Raised $4.2M · Spent $4.0M · Cash $370K in the 2026 cycle · FEC
Poll average
Weighted by recency with a 14-day half-life, sample size, population and pollster quality. Uses 4 of 4 polls. With 5 or more in the last 14 days, only those count.
Polls over time
Individual polls
- 2026-10-12 · 503 LVD 48%R 45%D +3
- 2026-09-24 · 500 LVD 46%R 45%D +1
- 2026-08-09 · 401 LVD 37%R 41%R +4
- 2026-06-25 · 550 LVD 40%R 45%R +5
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Dem | Rep | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart ResearchD sponsorC | 2026-10-12 | 503 LV | 48% | 45% | D +3 |
| Hart ResearchD sponsorC | 2026-09-24 | 500 LV | 46% | 45% | D +1 |
| Hart ResearchD sponsorC | 2026-08-09 | 401 LV | 37% | 41% | R +4 |
| Hart ResearchD sponsorC | 2026-06-25 | 550 LV | 40% | 45% | R +5 |
Race ratings
- Cook Political ReportLean R
- Inside ElectionsLikely R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLikely R
- The EconomistLean R
- Split TicketLean R
- Decision Desk HQLikely R
- FPOToss-up
- Fox NewsLean R
- Silver BulletinLean R
- RealClearPoliticsLean R
Polls and ratings compiled from Wikipedia under CC BY-SA.
More from other sources
Early and absentee voting in Ohio
This is who has voted so far across the whole state, not how they voted. See every state on Live Voting Results
Ohio
1,004,070 ballots through Oct 24That is 23.9% of the 4.20M people who voted in 2022. The finished early vote in 2024 was 2.53M.