All Senate races
Texas Senate
Toss-upTexas · Current: John Cornyn (not running)
Democrat
James Talarico
James Dell Talarico is an American politician, Presbyterian seminarian, and educator serving since 2018 as a member of the Texas House of Representatives. He is the Democratic Party's nominee in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas. Wikipedia
Raised $68.6M · Spent $47.0M · Cash $21.5M (2026 cycle) · FEC
Republican
Ken Paxton
Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the 51st attorney general of Texas since 2015. He is the Republican Party nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas. Wikipedia
Raised $9.2M · Spent $7.5M · Cash $1.8M (2026 cycle) · FEC
Poll average
48.6%45.0%
Weighted by recency (14-day half-life), sample size, population and pollster quality. 46 polls.
Polls over time
Individual polls
- 2026-10-05 · 3,625 LVD 50%R 44%D +6
- 2026-09-30 · 615 LVD 51%R 45%D +6
- 2026-09-29 · 1,128 LVD 46%R 45%D +1
- 2026-09-28 · 881 LVD 51%R 49%D +2
- 2026-09-27 · 800 LVD 45%R 48%R +3
- 2026-09-26 · 698 LVD 47%R 45%D +2
- 2026-09-24 · 856 LVD 48%R 48%Even
- 2026-09-22 · 1,007 LVD 49%R 44%D +5
- 2026-09-20 · 1,139 RVD 50%R 44%D +6
- 2026-09-19 · 1,800 LVD 47%R 46%D +1
- 2026-09-17 · 1,079 LVD 46%R 45%D +1
- 2026-09-14 · 1,000 LVD 47%R 46%D +1
- 2026-09-13 · 649 LVD 50%R 45%D +5
- 2026-09-11 · 614 LVD 49%R 43%D +6
- 2026-09-10 · 625 LVD 46%R 43%D +3
- 2026-09-09 · 1,200 LVD 47%R 46%D +1
- 2026-09-04 · 1,000 RVD 48%R 43%D +5
- 2026-09-01 · 895 LVD 48%R 44%D +4
- 2026-08-26 · 1,167 LVD 50%R 50%Even
- 2026-08-24 · 1,000 LVD 48%R 42%D +6
- 2026-08-13 · 1,200 RVD 42%R 39%D +3
- 2026-08-10 · 1,000 LVD 46%R 47%R +1
- 2026-07-31 · 800 LVD 48%R 46%D +2
- 2026-07-31 · 1,001 RVD 48%R 45%D +3
- 2026-07-30 · 619 LVD 47%R 43%D +4
- 2026-07-30 · 1,200 LVD 47%R 45%D +2
- 2026-07-27 · 1,005 RVD 51%R 48%D +3
- 2026-07-17 · 1,048 LVD 45%R 40%D +5
- 2026-06-28 · 618 LVD 48%R 46%D +2
- 2026-06-27 · 656 LVD 47%R 47%Even
- 2026-06-21 · 800 LVD 47%R 49%R +2
- 2026-06-12 · 1,200 RVD 42%R 43%R +1
- 2026-06-04 · 800 LVD 43%R 45%R +2
- 2026-06-04 · 807 LVD 46%R 46%Even
- 2026-05-28 · 1,670 LVD 47%R 44%D +3
- 2026-05-23 · 643 RVD 45%R 38%D +7
- 2026-05-06 · 1,223 LVD 45%R 45%Even
- 2026-04-20 · 1,018 LVD 46%R 41%D +5
- 2026-04-20 · 1,200 RVD 42%R 34%D +8
- 2026-03-17 · 900 LVD 44%R 43%D +1
- 2026-03-05 · 576D 47%R 45%D +2
- 2026-01-31 · 1,502 LVD 44%R 46%R +2
- 2026-01-12 · 1,165 RVD 46%R 46%Even
- 2025-11-17 · 1,000 LVD 44%R 44%Even
- 2025-10-01 · 1,650 RVD 46%R 49%R +3
- 2025-09-24 · 1,032 RVD 37%R 38%R +1
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Dem | Rep | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGovB | 2026-10-05 | 3,625 LV | 50% | 44% | D +6 |
| New York Times/Siena UniversityA | 2026-09-30 | 615 LV | 51% | 45% | D +6 |
| Rasmussen ReportsC | 2026-09-29 | 1,128 LV | 46% | 45% | D +1 |
| Beacon Research /Shaw & Co. Research(D)A | 2026-09-28 | 881 LV | 51% | 49% | D +2 |
| Pulse Decision Science(R)C | 2026-09-27 | 800 LV | 45% | 48% | R +3 |
| Big Data PollC | 2026-09-26 | 698 LV | 47% | 45% | D +2 |
| Stratus Intelligence(R)C | 2026-09-24 | 856 LV | 48% | 48% | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research(D)C | 2026-09-22 | 1,007 LV | 49% | 44% | D +5 |
| Marist UniversityA | 2026-09-20 | 1,139 RV | 50% | 44% | D +6 |
| Texas Southern UniversityB | 2026-09-19 | 1,800 LV | 47% | 46% | D +1 |
| Trafalgar Group(R)C | 2026-09-17 | 1,079 LV | 46% | 45% | D +1 |
| Emerson CollegeA | 2026-09-14 | 1,000 LV | 47% | 46% | D +1 |
| SoCal StrategiesC | 2026-09-13 | 649 LV | 50% | 45% | D +5 |
| ReconMR/Siena UniversityA | 2026-09-11 | 614 LV | 49% | 43% | D +6 |
| Mason-DixonA | 2026-09-10 | 625 LV | 46% | 43% | D +3 |
| InsiderAdvantageC | 2026-09-09 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 46% | D +1 |
| Univision/YouGovB | 2026-09-04 | 1,000 RV | 48% | 43% | D +5 |
| Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research(R)C | 2026-09-01 | 895 LV | 48% | 44% | D +4 |
| Overton Insights(R)C | 2026-08-26 | 1,167 LV | 50% | 50% | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research(D)C | 2026-08-24 | 1,000 LV | 48% | 42% | D +6 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectB | 2026-08-13 | 1,200 RV | 42% | 39% | D +3 |
| Emerson CollegeA | 2026-08-10 | 1,000 LV | 46% | 47% | R +1 |
| Wedgewood PollsC | 2026-07-31 | 800 LV | 48% | 46% | D +2 |
| YouGov Blue(D)B | 2026-07-31 | 1,001 RV | 48% | 45% | D +3 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityA | 2026-07-30 | 619 LV | 47% | 43% | D +4 |
| Texas Southern UniversityB | 2026-07-30 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 45% | D +2 |
| Beacon Research /Shaw & Co. Research(D)A | 2026-07-27 | 1,005 RV | 51% | 48% | D +3 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research(D)C | 2026-07-17 | 1,048 LV | 45% | 40% | D +5 |
| A2 InsightsC | 2026-06-28 | 618 LV | 48% | 46% | D +2 |
| New York Times/Siena UniversityA | 2026-06-27 | 656 LV | 47% | 47% | Even |
| SoCal Strategies(R)C | 2026-06-21 | 800 LV | 47% | 49% | R +2 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectB | 2026-06-12 | 1,200 RV | 42% | 43% | R +1 |
| Quantus InsightsC | 2026-06-04 | 800 LV | 43% | 45% | R +2 |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityA | 2026-06-04 | 807 LV | 46% | 46% | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research(D)C | 2026-05-28 | 1,670 LV | 47% | 44% | D +3 |
| Public Policy Polling(D)B | 2026-05-23 | 643 RV | 45% | 38% | D +7 |
| Texas Southern UniversityB | 2026-05-06 | 1,223 LV | 45% | 45% | Even |
| Texas Public Opinion Research(D)C | 2026-04-20 | 1,018 LV | 46% | 41% | D +5 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectB | 2026-04-20 | 1,200 RV | 42% | 34% | D +8 |
| Impact Research(D)C | 2026-03-17 | 900 LV | 44% | 43% | D +1 |
| Public Policy Polling(D)B | 2026-03-05 | 576 | 47% | 45% | D +2 |
| University of Houston/YouGovB | 2026-01-31 | 1,502 LV | 44% | 46% | R +2 |
| Emerson CollegeA | 2026-01-12 | 1,165 RV | 46% | 46% | Even |
| Ragnar Research Partners(R)C | 2025-11-17 | 1,000 LV | 44% | 44% | Even |
| University of Houston/Texas Southern UniversityB | 2025-10-01 | 1,650 RV | 46% | 49% | R +3 |
| UT TylerC | 2025-09-24 | 1,032 RV | 37% | 38% | R +1 |
Race ratings
- Cook Political ReportToss-up
- Decision Desk HQToss-up
- The EconomistToss-up
- FPOflipLean D
- Fox NewsToss-up
- Inside ElectionsLean R
- RealClearPoliticsToss-up
- Sabato's Crystal BallToss-up
- Silver BulletinflipLean D
- Split TicketflipLean D
Polls and ratings compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).