2026 Forecast
Seats projected for each party, based on the consensus of public race ratings.
House
Net shift vs. today: Dems +11 to +23 · Majority = 218
45 competitive races
Senate
Net shift vs. today: Dems +1 to +7 · Majority = 51
11 competitive races
Governor
Net shift vs. today: Dems 0 to +4
14 competitive races
Daily update
Wednesday, October 7 · updated 1:27 PM PT
Today’s update for Toss-up, Lean D and Lean R races: 3 individual rater moves and 4 new polls; no race changed its consensus rating.
Rater moves. In Iowa Senate, Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Lean D to Toss-up, leaving the consensus at Toss-up. In Nebraska Senate, Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Lean R to Likely R, leaving the consensus at Toss-up. In Iowa Governor, Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Safe D to Likely D, leaving the consensus at Lean D.
New polls. In Iowa Senate (Toss-up), Suffolk University (Oct 4) found Turek 48%, Hinson 44%. In Iowa Governor (Lean D), Suffolk University (Oct 4) found Sand 55%, Lahn 43%. In Alaska Governor (Lean D), Alaska Survey Research (Oct 3) found Kreiss-Tomkins 48%, Wilson 27%. In Michigan Senate (Lean D), Quantus Insights (R) (Oct 6) found El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 47%.